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  • 20
    Jan
    2012
    1:02pm, EST

    After drone attack on al-Qaida planner, is Zawahiri next? Before the election?

    AFP - Getty Images file

    Ayman al Zawahiri, the longtime No. 2 to Osama bin Laden.

    By Robert Windrem
    NBC News

    With the successful Predator attack on al-Qaida operative Aslam Awan inside Pakistan, al-Qaida has lost, in the words of a senior U.S. official last night, "a senior external operations planner who was working on attacks against the West. His death reduces al-Qaida's thinning bench of another operative devoted to plotting the death of innocent civilians."

    Awan is believed to have been somewhat close to Ayman al Zawahiri, the leader of al-Qaida since shortly after Osama Bbn Laden's death on May 1. Although U.S. officials would not place a number on Awan's rank within al-Qaida, he was believed to have been involved in planning attacks, putting him in the high command.

    But what of Zawahiri? The U.S. pursuit of him remains a high priority. (And his killing or capture would be regarded as a political coup for the Obama administration in a campaign year.) The U.S. has targeted Zawahiri five times by his own count, going back to the days after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.


    A U.S. counterterrorism official tells NBC News that there's limited information on the status of U.S. planning against Zawahiri. "It's certainly not impossible" for an attack on Zawahiri to be attempted. "But he has clearly hung very low since May, with fundamentally no communications," said the official.

    Evan Kohlmann, MSNBC analyst and counterterrorism consultant, reports that since bin Laden's death, al-Qaida's media arm has released eight recordings of al-Zawahiri, not all of which can be easily dated. At least one and possibly two of them were probably recorded prior to bin Laden being killed, then released after his death. The most recent one came out on December 1. In that video, Zawahiri boasted that al-Qaida had seized aid worker Warren Weinstein, a 70-year-old American, in Lahore last August. There's been no proof of life regarding Weinstein since then.

    Those recordings are often hand-carried through a network of couriers to ensure Zawahiri's security.

    From the archives: Bin Laden dead: Who will lead al-Qaeda?

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    235 comments

    He is most certainly aware that there is no statute of limitations on his crime. Regardless of how many years pass, or who is President his relentless pursuit by the USA will carry on. Unless he dies a natural death he is essentially a dead man walking.

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  • 17
    Jan
    2012
    5:12pm, EST

    Israeli embassy, U.S. tourists among likely targets of Bangkok bomb plot

    By Robert Windrem
    NBC News

    Police raids in Bangkok, Thailand, which netted a suspected Hezbollah operative Thursday and the makings of bomb-making materials Saturday, represent "one of the most credible Israel-focused threats overseas in a long time," said NBC News analyst Roger Cressey, and "very much the real deal" adds NBC News analyst Mike Leiter.

    The two analysts referred primarily to the Saturday raid where police confiscated more than 8,800 pounds (4,000 kilograms) of urea fertilizer and several gallons of liquid ammonium nitrate found in a warehouse in Samut Sakhon, on the western outskirts of Bangkok.

    Officials in the U.S. and Israel said Hezbollah could have been planning an attack on the Israeli embassy in downtown Bangkok, near various tourist sites, say Cressey and Leiter. Hezbollah, a Shi'ite Islamist group in Lebanon backed by Syria and Iran, is on the U.S. blacklist of foreign terrorist organizations.

    The raid caused both the U.S. and Israel to issue public travel warnings urging their citizens to be cautious.


    Information that led to the raid was relayed to Thai police by Israeli intelligence. Police detained a Swedish national of Lebanese origin with alleged links to pro-Iranian Hezbollah militants on Thursday. The intelligence indicated a plot could be carried out between between Friday and Sunday.

    Cressey said the fear was that Hezbollah was constructing a large bomb that would have caused a devastating blast in an area that many Americans visit.

    "There would have been a lot of collateral damage," said Cressey, a former member of the U.S. National Security Council staff.

    Moreover, both analysts note they've been told the threat may not be over, that at least one other operative is being sought. Leiter, former director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, says there is a fear about plots against "secondary targets", either tourist or Jewish, in the Thai capital.

    As for the rationale for the attack, Cressey said, "All theories make sense. Can't rank order them yet," while Leiter noted, "It's pretty consistent with the increase in tension between Israel and Iran." Iran has vowed revenge for the killings of its nuclear scientists, which it has blamed on Israel and the U.S.

    One possibility raised by both is Hezbollah revenge for the Israeli killing on Imad Mugniyah, the Hezbollah leader who died in a car bombing in downtown Damascus nearly four years ago on February 12, 2008.  Mugniyah was responsible for many anti-American and anti-Israeli terrorist attacks, including the bombing of the U.S. embassy in Beirut in 1983, the Marine Barracks bombing in 1983 and the bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires in 1992. Hezbollah vowed revenge for that killing but never carried out attacks that it tied to Mugniyah's death.

    Background on the incident from the Associated Press:

    National police chief Priewpan Damapong told reporters the suspect, named as Atris Hussein, had given police an address where bomb-making material was being kept.

    Priewpan said the suspect had maintained that his group had not planned an attack in Thailand but intended to transport the substances to a third country, which he would not name.

    Asked about the discovery, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra told reporters: "I have been informed. I would like to ask people not to panic. We are currently in control of the situation."

    Thai officials have seemed irritated by travel advisories issued by the U.S. and Israeli governments, followed by several more since Friday. Foreign Minister Surapong Towijakchaikul said diplomats from countries that had issued warnings would meet with him for an explanation on Monday.

    Tourism is a big money-earner for Thailand, and ministers are keen not to deter travelers, especially after the hit to tourism from severe flooding in 2011 and political unrest in 2010.

    Yingluck also instructed the defense ministry to consult U.S. embassy officials to discuss its terror warning and seek a retraction.

    However, an embassy spokesman later said the terror warning to its citizens was valid and the United States had no plan to rescind it.

    Defence Minister Yuthasak Sasiprapha told reporters in the northern city of Chiang Mai on Sunday that Thailand was not the target, although officials have also said that areas of Bangkok frequented by Westerners and Israelis could be hit.

    Yuthasak said that a second suspect had managed to leave the country.

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    113 comments

    That's right, Toasty...the Israelis provoked those poor, innocent Hezbollah guys into trying to blow up their embassy. So obviously the Israelis are to blame...NOT!!!

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  • 9
    Jan
    2012
    6:16am, EST

    Meet the NBA tycoon and rapper's friend who could be president of Russia

    Maxim Shipenkov / EPA file

    Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, 46, speaks at a news conference after supporters nominated him as a presidential candidate on Dec. 15 in Moscow.

    By Robert Windrem
    NBC News

    Who is Mikhail Prokhorov? That’s easy. He is the most interesting man in the world!

    Mikhail Dmitrievich Prokhorov, 46, is a singular figure in Russia and now the larger world. At 6 foot, 9 inches tall and thin, he is the Global Russian - very different from the short, dour New Soviet Man of decades past.


    A billionaire somewhere between 18 and 25 times over, he is a partying playboy who swears he has never tasted vodka. He is called Russia's most eligible bachelor and has been seen in the company of some of the world's most beautiful women. He is quick-witted, charming, droll and affable, someone who enjoys the spotlight, craves it in fact. In a literary sense, he is more Jay Gatsby than Dr. Zhivago.

    Although he is a Russian patriot, he also is a man of the world. He travels in a $45 million Gulfstream V corporate jet and can't seem to keep track of his $45 million yacht. His watch is reportedly worth $138,000.

    He owns a large house in one of Moscow's new gated communities. He’s been in a French court trying to retrieve a $30 million deposit he placed on what is purported to be the world's most expensive home -- the $700 million Villa Leopolda, built for a Belgian king on the Riviera. First he liked it, then he didn’t.

    He owns an NBA team – the New Jersey Nets -- and part of a billion-dollar arena being built in Brooklyn. His business partner in both is the rapper and entrepreneur Jay-Z. He’s received medals from the presidents of Russia and France and met U.S. Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, the latter of whom suggested he’d like to play with Prokhorov in any pickup basketball game.

    And now he’s running for president of Russia. Prokhorov was not born interesting. He arrived a simple comrade in the Soviet Union on May 3, 1965. His father was a member of the Soviet sports committee and his mother a scientist.

    New Jersey Nets owner and billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov plans to challenge Vladimir Putin for the Russian presidency. NBC's Stephanie Gosk reports.

    While privileged, his upbringing was nothing special for the day.  His parents sent him to English Special School No. 21 in Moscow, where he received a gold medal and was recommended by the local Komsomol (Young Communist League) for college admission.

    But first, he did what other Soviet youths were required to do. From 1983 to 1985 -- at the height of tensions between the U.S. and Soviet Union -- he served in the Soviet military. He also joined the Communist Party, though it doesn't appear he was ever much of a Communist. While in college, he sold stone-washed jeans -- his first capitalist venture-- under the brand name, "Yourself Jeans."

    But all that presents only an inkling of who he is.  Let's start with the money.

    Prokhorov went into banking after graduating from the Moscow Financial Institute with a degree in international economics. From 1989 to 1992, he was head of the International Bank for Economic Cooperation’s Management Board.

    Courtesy of Mikhail Prokhorov

    Mikhail Prokhorov, fourth from right, and other members of the Norilsk management team visit a mine in 2003.

    Then, in 1993, during the largely unregulated and highly controversial privatization of former state-controlled industries, Prokhorov and a partner, Vladimir Potanin, saw an opportunity. They engineered the purchase of Norilsk Nickel mines in Siberia through the then-small Uneximbank. He was 28 at the time, Potanin slightly older.

    It was a bargain, but hardly an instant bonanza. Workers hadn’t been paid for six months and the arctic terrain was polluted beyond most Westerners’ comprehension, according to published reports. Early on, Prokhorov was Mr. Inside at Norilsk, working on pollution control and financing, among other things, and negotiating with Soviet-spawned labor unions on compensation.

    Prokhorov doesn’t apologize for buying up dilapidated Soviet era properties for a song. He followed the rules, he will tell you. Some oligarchs succeeded more than others. He succeeded the most. He is credited with turning the inefficient Soviet nickel mines into one of the world's largest and most profitable natural resource corporations. And over the past decade he expanded his holdings to include palladium, gold and bauxite, from which aluminum is made.

    (Not everything at Norilsk is yet up to Western standards. In spite of large-scale spending on pollution control technology -- about $100 million, according to the New York Times --  the company is still one of the world's worst polluters, emitting nearly 2 million tons of sulfur dioxide annually, more than the entire nation of France.) 

    Detained, then honored
    Prokhorov became more than just an intriguing industrialist in January 2007, when he was detained for allegedly arranging prostitutes for guests at his annual two-week long Russian Christmas party at the French Alps resort of Courchevel. He was released without charges after spending four days in jail, and none of the women was charged. He later received an apology from French authorities, apparently arranged by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. By 2011, he had been awarded the French Legion of Honor for arranging cultural exchanges.

    Reports on the affair by French and Russian publications offered jaw-dropping glimpses of Prokhorov’s gilded lifestyle. Paris Match reported that when the women were detained and their luggage searched, lucrative gifts were discovered, valued at between 20,000 and 300,000 euros (approximately $25,800 to $387,000 at the exchange rate at the time). Komsomolskaya Pravda reported that Prokhorov engaged a "face patrol" at his favorite Courchevel haunt, "Les Caves," to filter out all but the most beautiful people.

    He shrugged off his four days in French jail, noting that he had been a Soviet conscript.

    New Jersey Nets owner and billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov plans to challenge Vladimir Putin for the Russian presidency. NBC's Stephanie Gosk reports.

    Then there was the time he soiled one of the Soviet Union's -- and Russia's -- most historic icons: the Aurora, the Russian cruiser that fired the cannon blast that launched the Russian Revolution in 1918. Prokhorov rented the vessel permanently moored in St Petersburg in June 2009 for an evening of merrymaking to celebrate the first anniversary of his new magazine, the Russian Pioneer. The party became so rowdy that several millionaires jumped or fell into the Neva River and had to be fished out by authorities. Museum artifacts also were reportedly damaged.

    Prokhorov’s reaction to the resulting controversy? He offered to buy the ship and restore it.

    He is not beyond anger, though. When his sister was harassed and insulted by local youths at a Prokhorov Foundation event in 2009, he threatened business rivals who he said had paid them.

     “Since I was a child, I had a rule -- to punish crudity and disrespect towards women,” he wrote on his blog, according to a translation by the ReadRussia blog. “I see one simple and effective way to handle it: If the two gentlemen who financed this PR campaign do not apologize to my sister in the next two weeks, I will do what every man should: I will personally beat the @!$%# out of them."

    Asked later if he was serious, he responded, "Do you have any doubts? Those responsible made their apologies to Irina."

    All of this made him famous, at least in Moscow.  He was satirized on Russian television for his lavish lifestyle and his reputation as "Russia’s most eligible bachelor."

    It also caused him problems with the prudish Kremlin. He was pressured to sell his 25 percent stake in Norilsk to another oligarch, Oleg Derispaska, the owner of RusAl, the world’s biggest aluminum manufacturer. Propitiously, the deal was completed just before the 2008 economic downturn, resulting in a bonanza for Prokhorov. He received nearly $5 billion in cash as well as stock in Polyus Gold and stock and debt in RusAl, now the main sources of his net worth. 

    At that point, there was no stopping him. At a time when no one had cold hard cash, he was flush. He shrewdly diversified. 

    By 2009, he had controlling interests in metals companies (Polyus Gold, UC RusAl), banks (Renaissance Capital, MFK Bank), media outlets (RBC, Snob and Russian Pioneer magazines, FIT television channel, F5 web portal/newspaper), insurance (Soglassye), real estate (OPIN Investment and Development Group), electricity production (Quadra) and LED technology (Optogan).

    He also established a personal investment vehicle, ONEXIM, to control his various assets.

    Entering the international arena
    Then, in 2009, Prokhorov stepped onto the international stage.

    The New Jersey Nets were a mess, stripped of talent and suffering through a 12-70 season under owner Bruce Ratner, who had suffered enormous losses as he tried to move the team from northern New Jersey to a $6.4 billion real estate development in Brooklyn called Atlantic Yards. But five years after the 22-acre project had been announced, lawsuit after lawsuit had caused delay after delay. To make things worse, Ratner faced a Dec. 31 deadline to sell $500 million in tax-exempt bonds to build the Nets’ arena, to be called Barclays Center. Without them the project was going to die not with a bang but a whimper. And 2009 was not an auspicious time to get financing for anything, let alone a beleaguered basketball arena.

    Larry Busacca / Courtesy of Mikhail Prokhorov

    Mikhail Prokhorov and Jay-Z.

    Enter Prokhorov, who had played basketball and previously owned Euroleague power CSKA Moscow. He had been interested in buying the Knicks, but the Dolan family wasn’t selling. (Later after buying the Nets, he erected an 18-story billboard featuring him and business partner Jay-Z outside James Dolan’s offices at Madison Square Garden.)  An investment banker suggested an alternative, mentioning Ratner and his troubles.

    A deal was stuck over dinner in Moscow, and it was every bit as shrewd as any of Prokhorov’s Russian maneuvers. According to ONEXIM and Nets officials, he laid down a little more than $200 million in cash and got 80 percent of the team; 45 percent of the billion dollar arena, and an option to purchase up to 20 percent of the overall Atlantic Yards project at a bargain basement price. In exchange, he agreed to assume 80 percent of the team’s astronomical debt load -- more than $221 million -- and pay up to $60 million to cover losses while the team was stuck in New Jersey. He also paid a $4 million buyout fee so the team could move out of its isolated and decrepit digs near the Meadowlands and into Newark’s gleaming new Prudential Center. Moreover, when bond rating agencies wouldn’t give the arena bonds an investment grade rating, Prokhorov agreed to sink another $76 million into the project. (He wasn’t doing it for charitable reasons. If his partners can’t pay it back at 11 percent interest per annum, he gets 80 percent of the arena.) 

    Within weeks, a key eminent domain case was finally dismissed, the bonds sold and his investment was well on its way to his goal: a billion dollar valuation within five years.

    When asked by a reporter at a May 2010 press conference in New York if his purchase was part of a larger effort by Russian oligarchs to buy up Western sports teams, he smiled and drolly intoned, “Please tell America, I come in peace.”

    After he videotaped a message in his sister’s kitchen promising a championship in as little as one year and no longer than five, his reception from long-suffering fans long-suffering bordered on obeisance. At his first game as the team owner in October 2010, a steady stream of them approached the owner’s suite and thanked him profusely for buying the team. (Inside, bottles of Lafitte Rothschild 1982, valued at about $5,000 a pop, were scattered about for his guests.) 

    One night a couple of fans found themselves on a train from New York to Newark with their favorite team’s owner and his entourage. The reason? When it looked like traffic would prevent his caravan of limos from making the game, he had jumped on New Jersey Transit. His spokesman distributed a video of the trip showing one of the world’s richest men standing in the aisle of a New Jersey commuter train, joking in Russian with his friends. 

    He agreed to a “60 Minutes” profile that showed him in a trendy Moscow nightclub with scantily clad women half his age, posing with an AK-7, jet-skiing in the Maldives, working on his kick-boxing skills and claiming he really didn’t know where his yacht was -- it was docked in the south of France and available for lease for $325,000 a week. It was masterful image-making. Later, there was an only slightly tamer profile in the New York Times Sunday Magazine, headlined “An Oligarch of Our Own” The cover featured him legs spread slightly apart, looking ahead and holding out two basketballs as if astride the NBA world. 

    Suddenly, the guy who dealt with gritty environmental problems at a mine north of the Arctic Circle was not just an NBA owner, but a bona fide international celebrity. Everyone wanted to meet him.

    Maintaining mystique
    Despite his fondness for the limelight, Prokhorov remained private in ways. He might spend nearly $18,000 on lunch at a Midtown restaurant, but it was the restaurant owner who bragged about it to the New York Post, not Prokhorov. He might spend $30 million on a vacation with friends in the south of France, as French media reported, but he wouldn't confirm it or boast about it. Of course, he didn't deny it either. He understands mystique.

    Before entering politics, he refused to identify his favorite author, his favorite fictional character, even his favorite color. He said he didn't want the media or public to be aware of his "cultural biases." He did identify a favorite quote, from a French author: "Good advice is something a man gives when he is too old to set a bad example.

    He still hasn’t revealed his favorite color but he did disclose that he is an atheist and that his favorite book is Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn’s “One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich,” the magisterial work on life in Stalinist labor camps.

    Prokhorov’s entry into Russian politics was similarly contradictory. A week after denying he had any interest in politics, he agreed this spring to head a small right-wing political party called “Right Cause.” it was seen as part of the Kremlin’s “managed democracy,” that is a party created to give the country’s leaders “friendly opposition” from the right.

    He even met with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at the latter’s residence, where Medvedev praised him as “quite revolutionary” and arranged a photo op in which the two were seated across a table -- better than a side by side standing shot, since Prokhorov is a foot and a half taller than Medvedev.

    Everything seemed to be going swimmingly as summer progressed.  Prokhorov poured money into the party, giving it publicity. He resigned as the head of his investment vehicle, ONEXIM, to devote all his time to politics. 

    But in fall, something changed. Vladislav Surkov, who as head of presidential administration is in charge of the Kremlin’s “managed democracy,” began calling on the phone, Prokhorov later said, demanding changes in party personnel, in the party’s list of candidates.

    Pushed by the Kremlin, the party finally ousted Prokhorov as leader in September.

    Prokhorov responded by holding a news conference where he blistered Sukrov as the Kremlin’s “puppet master,” although he pointedly did not criticize either the president or prime minister. Then he dropped out of sight.

    In apparent retaliation, Medvedev removed him from the Russian modernization commission and, ominously, Prokhorov’s application to have Polyus Gold listed on the London Stock Exchange was inexplicably delayed.

    But as resentment mounted after Putin’s announcement of his candidacy for president on Sept. 24, Prokhorov got back in, declaring himself an independent candidate for the office.

    Some critics see a Machiavellian hand behind Prokhorov’s political rebound, suggesting he is a “stooge” set up by the Kremlin to draw votes away from other opposition parties. He and those around him deny it.   

    In the unlikely event he is elected president in March --  polls show him with numbers in the low single digits -- there are some hints of what a Prokhorov presidency  would look like:

    By all accounts, he is calm in even the worst crisis and demands from his aides that they have Plans A, B, C, etc., at the ready.

    He is not a hands-on manager, preferring to trust a cadre of loyalists in their 30s and 40s to run his companies. But if he doesn’t like what he sees, he is quick to let someone go. The day he took over the Nets, he summarily dismissed the coach.  

    He is not a technocrat, having only lately begun using a cell phone. Although he claims he does not use a personal computer (too much information) and writes out his thoughts on yellow legal pads, his staff maintains both a personal website and a personal blog, regularly posting how he feels on life and business. He has recently branched out into Facebook and Twitter, but only because of politics. He told reporters in 2010, “I know of this iPad. I hope we never meet.”

    On the other hand, no NBA team makes more use of the iPad, even drawing up plays on it. And he’s not afraid to invest in new technologies. His latest venture is a $150 million investment in an electric car called the “Yo,” which will go on sale later this year.

    Politically, he is described as right of center, but liberal, somewhat like another basketball playing pol, Bill Bradley. He was friendly with Yelena Bonner, the late human rights campaigner and widow of Andrei Sakharov. He financed a memorial to Stalinist repression deep inside Russia.

    He has said he won’t criticize Putin, but has also said the system will collapse in five years unless it’s dramatically reformed. He calls himself a serious candidate and has vowed to give up partying if elected. He told one interviewer he may even marry if Russia feels it needs a first lady. Most recently, he has been seen in the company of Ksenia Sobchak, described as the Russian version of Paris Hilton, having posed for Maxim magazine. 

    Yet his quest for the presidency seems quixotic at best, cynical at worst. He still believes in the power of money. Shut out of state television, he tried to buy TV Rain, an independent satellite and online television operation. When that failed, he tried to acquire Kommersant, the Russian equivalent of the Wall Street Journal. No sale there either.

    So he is resorting to using the social media. He has a YouTube channel where you can watch “This Week in Prokhorov” or his latest commercial, where dressed casually in a letter jacket and white shirt, he tells voters, “I want to work for you.”

    He also makes clear that he wants to reform the system, not overthrow it. After all, few if any, have benefited more.

    “Revolution in Russia always resulted in loss of life and reduced living standards,” he wrote recently on his blog.

    He also indicated in other recent entries that he believes he is the right man to lead his country through what he sees as a pivotal period.

     “I believe that the next president must find in himself the will and courage,” he wrote. “And the people must clearly explain their vision and their actions. If he is honest, he will understand.”

    “… As president of the various structures -- in business, and not just business -- I have often resorted to the unpopular measures. Yes, it's difficult. Yes, sometimes you come across a lack of understanding and acceptance even in the immediate vicinity. Yes, sometimes you're risking much …on a grand scale, sometimes everything. But when you can clearly see the situation, you see that there is no alternative but  to do this.”

    Robert Windrem is a senior investigative producer for NBC News and a Nets season ticket holder. 

    58 comments

    Reading this article just sickens me. Who cares ! I am tired of the glory of the wealthy people. Just because you have money doesn't make you good at what you do. It seems entertainment is his forte rather than politics. Can he run a country? Can he put aside his fun for politics? It seems the Russ …

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    Explore related topics: business, nba, russia, entrepreneur, featured, mikhail-prokhorov, windrem
  • 12
    May
    2011
    4:07pm, EDT

    Think your boss is difficult? Bin Laden was a micromanager, too

    By Robert Windrem
    NBC News investigative producer for special projects

    The writings of Osama bin Laden, much in the news the last couple of days, amount to a single notebook of "10 or so pages" in his handwriting, a senior U.S. intelligence official says.

    Rather than a "journal" or a "diary," the official described it as an "outline" or a "white paper" on al-Qaida's plans. "It set up an agenda for subsequent discussion and correspondence," he added, some of it with his subordinates and some with affiliated groups. In fact, there is other written and digital material that relates to the 10-page notebook.

    The singular impression of analysts, said the official: "He was down in the weeds ... a micromanager."

    The U.S. does not yet know if the material was written in one or more sittings, and the official declined to say how recently it was written.

    Exploitation of the full cache of material is still under way. At the beginning of the process, 10 days ago, the official said the CIA estimated exploitation would take "a few weeks total if we go around the clock" The explotiation is in fact going 24 hours a day, with updates every morning and a number of regular intelligence reports — "dozens" on some days — distributed throughout the day.

    As for additional videos, the official said a lot of them were what we have seen already: unreleased propaganda, outtakes, and news reports that had been recorded. Bin Laden's own messages were recorded at the compound, and it appears that some production and post-production work were done elsewhere by al Shahab, the al-Qaida media arm.

    When asked if the material seized is helping the U.S. identify locations of other al-Qaida leaders, the official declined to comment.

     

     

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    116 comments

    I am so darn glad that piece of horse crap is dead.

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  • 4
    Mar
    2011
    8:20am, EST

    Libya has 'significant' stockpile of chemical weapons

    By Robert Windrem
    NBC News investigative producer for special projects

    More than decade ago, a Washington writer penned a novel based on Moammar Gadhafi’s willingness to use chemical weapons.  Called “Circle William,” the novel was based on a supposed plot by Gadhafi to use chemical weapons against the Israeli Knesset in Jerusalem and a ship christening ceremony in Norfolk, Va. Predictably, the plot failed because of the heroic efforts of two brothers.

    While there is no evidence that Libya would go after U.S. or Israeli targets — or even has the capability to do so — one of the book’s main premises is very real: Gadhafi has vast reserves of chemical weapons.

    Libya has a "significant" stockpile of chemical weapons, developed during the 1980s, according to U.S. officials, but the U.S. also believes there is no evidence that he is prepared to use them against his own people. With the destruction of 3,500 aerial bombs in 2004, Gadhafi may not have the delivery systems needed.

    "We have no indication he is planning to use them against his population ... but he doesn't always make rational decisions," said one official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

    U.S. officials do say the Libyan government recently updated security measures at the country’s chemical weapons storage and destruction facilities.

    U.S. officials tell NBC News the facilities are on an air base near the town of Sebha, 250 miles south of Tripoli. The Libyans have been using a chemical neutralization process to destroy the weapons and are nearing completion of an incineration facility at Sebha.

    Indeed, Libya has one of the world’s largest remaining stockpiles of chemical weapons.

    Of the 23 tons of mustard gas declared by the Libyans in 2004, only about 9.5 tons remain, according to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, or OPCW, which has responsibility for overseeing the destruction of such weapons under the Chemical Weapons Convention.

    The destruction began in 2010 and was supposed to be concluded by May,  but the situation  in Libya clouds that timetable, say officials.

    By comparison, as of last month the U.S. had more than 4,700 tons of chemical weapons agents still awaiting destruction, specifically mustard and blister agents as well as the nerve agents VX and sarin.  The Russian stockpile is even larger, at more than 20,000 tons.

    The Libyans declared their country had produced only mustard gas.

    “And the declaration on precursor chemicals (those used to make chemical warfare agents) was also only for mustard gas,” said Michael Luhan, a OPCW spokesman.

    Some in U.S. intelligence, however, were never convinced that the Libyans limited their chemical weapons production to mustard gas.

    “I don't know of anyone at the (Central Intelligence) Agency who was fully comfortable with the Libyans telling us everything we wanted to know,” said a former senior intelligence official.  “The going assumption was they were lying whenever possible, and we were rarely proven wrong.”

    Moreover, he said,  U.S. intelligence believed that the Libyans had not been completely truthful on the quantity as well as the quality of the weapons. “We believed they were saving something for a rainy day.”

    However, a current U.S. intelligence official said that while there was concern about nerve agents “because of the discovery of precursor chemicals,”  it was only research and development.

    “No one believed they were successful,” said the official. “Never a capability.  Never actual stocks, just precursors. OPCW was concerned that Libya did not declare an R&D effort, but they didn’t.”  

    In addition to the stockpile, one inactivated chemical weapons production facility at Rabta, 60 miles south of Tripoli, was declared and has now been converted to a pharmaceutical plant, ironically, its original cover.

    “The conversion is irreversible,” said Luhan.

    187 comments

    So thats where all of Saddam Husseins WMD program ended up...I guess bush, cheney and the rest of the chickenhawk liars may have been right...NOT Now taking applications from anyone who wants to join mccain and go fight in libya...you missed out on iraq and afghanistan...don't blow this chance to be …

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  • 24
    Feb
    2011
    4:15pm, EST

    After 9/11, U.S. gave more visas to Saudi students

    By Garrett Haake and Robert Windrem
    NBC News

    Khalid Ali-M Aldawsari, the Saudi student arrested Thursday on charges that he planned to build bombs for terror attacks inside the United States, was granted a U.S. student visa after qualifying for a generous scholarship sponsored by Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah, according to the indictment against him. (Read the FBI affidavit supporting an arrest warrant. The affidavit describes the evidence against Aldawsari.)

    Aldawsari was one of more than 10,000 Saudi students granted student visas in 2008, an NBC News analysis of the visa program shows.

    Indeed, the number of Saudi students approved for entry into the United States has jumped more than fourfold since 15 young Saudis helped carry out the attacks on the United States on Sept. 11, 2001. At the same time, visas granted to other Middle East nations dropped often precipitously or remained at the same level.

    The analysis shows that 26,744 Saudi students received US F-1 and F-2 visas in 2010, up from 6,836 in 2001. The numbers have steadily increased as the Kingdom has provided financing for students, believing the students' exposure to the U.S. and its education system would help US-Saudi relations.

    While overall non-immigrant visas from Saudi has dropped during the period from 2001 to 2010, the education visas have skyrocketed, in large part, say U.S.officials, because of the King Abdullah Scholarship program which sponsored Aldawsari.

    Aldawsari is the only recipient of the scholarship known to have been accused of terrorism.

    The King Abdullah Program annually sponsors thousands of Saudi students. It generously "provides the means to best world universities to pursue studies that lead to degrees (bachelors, masters and doctorate) and medical fellowships."

    Administered through the Ministry of Higher Education, it is one of the most generous programs anywhere. According to the program's website, King Abdullah Scholarships provide financial support for scholarship recipients. Among the privileges it offers are the following:

    • Monthly stipend
    • Full tuition and fees paid directly to the educational institution
    • Cost of attending conferences, symposia and workshops
    • Expenses for scientific trips
    • Allowances for books and clothes
    • Financial support for spouse and dependents
    • Medical insurance

    Aldawsari referred to the program as the "Traitor of the Two Holy Places Scholarship," a play on the Saudi king's most revered title, "Protector of the Two Holy Places." The FBI says he chose the program because, unlike other Saudi scholarships, it would allow him to go directly to the U.S. without having to first study in college-level programs in Saudi Arabia.

    A review of State Department records show that Saudi students got far more visas than others from the region. Students from the United Arab Emirates, for example, received a total of 1,233 student visas in 2010, compared with 1,246 in 2001. Yemeni students received 279 visas in 2010, compared with 376.

    Pakistani students had the most precipitous drop, declining from 3,880 in 2001 to 1,093 visas in 2010, a drop of 72 percent. Pakistani officials complain that the drop has dramatically hurt U.S.-Pakistani relations, because those seeking visas are the children of the most affluent and pro-U.S. Pakistanis.

    Garrett Haake is an associate producer for NBC Nightly News. Robert Windrem is investigative producer for special projects for NBC News.

     

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  • 23
    Feb
    2011
    12:13pm, EST

    Gadhafi controls $32 billion, turned down Madoff, diplomat wrote

    By Robert Windrem
    NBC News investigative producer for special projects

    Moammar Gadhafi’s regime controls $32 billion in liquid assets around the world, including hundreds of millions of dollars invested in U.S. banks, according to a confidential cable written by the U.S. ambassador to Libya last year. The leaked diplomatic message was distributed through WikiLeaks.

    The same cable reported that Libya had been approached by two men accused of running huge Ponzi schemes, Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford, but had resisted offers from them to invest Libyan funds with them. Madoff is serving time in a U.S. prison; Stanford has not been convicted of a crime and is awaiting trial.

    The cable is entitled "Technology of Tourism: Head of Libyan Investment Authority Discusses Opportunities for US Business in Libya," and was written Jan. 28, 2010, by Ambassador Gene A. Cretz, after a meeting with Mohamed Layas, the head of the LIA, Libya’s sovereign wealth fund. Sovereign wealth funds are the vehicles used by Middle East and other governments to invest oil wealth. The LIA, according to U.S. intelligence, is controlled by Gadhafi's regime.

    "Layas asserted that the LIA has USD 32 billion in liquidity, and noted that several American banks are each managing USD 300-500 million of the LIA's funds," according to the cable.

    Cretz also quotes Layas as saying, "We have USD 32 billion in liquidity,  mostly in bank deposits that will give us good long-term returns." Layas explained that beyond the hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. banks, not further identified, Layas said the LIA has extensive investments in the United Kingdom.

    Cretz wrote that Layas "said that the LIA has an office in London and preferred doing business there rather than in the United States, due to the ‘ease of doing business’ in the UK and relatively 'uncomplicated tax system.' He noted that the LIA's primary investments are in London, in banking and residential and commercial real estate."

    The LIA’s best-publicized investment was in a Canadian oil company, Verenex. Libya paid $316 million for the company in 2009.

    However, the Libyan claimed he had avoided being involved in two Ponzi schemes, those run by Madoff and Stanford. Layas denied press reports that LIA had invested $100 million with Stanford, but admitted being approached by both Stanford and Madoff.

    "Stanford had approached the LIA in the middle of his crisis, offering a 7-8% share in his investment scheme, but Layas had refused," Cretz wrote. "Layas also mentioned having been previously approached by Bernard Madoff about an investment opportunity, 'but we did not accept’." 

    Read the cable here.

    Other diplomatic cables on Libya are described in this New York Times article, "WikiLeaks cables detail Qaddafi family's exploits."

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  • 17
    Feb
    2011
    6:09am, EST

    Yemen, Bahrain, Iran could be next Egypt, U.S. officials say

    By Robert Windrem
    NBC News investigative producer for special projects

    U.S. officials, while declining to point to a single country that could follow Tunisia and Egypt into regime change, say they believe there are three countries whose protests could, under some circumstances, reach that same level of intensity.

    The officials cited Yemen, Bahrain and Iran (not necessarily in that order) as being in a separate category from the rest of the Middle East nations. There may be protests and demonstrations in the other countries, but the protests are less widespread or more likely to be put down by brutal state security forces, U.S. officials said.

    Here's a country-by-country assessment drawn from the accounts of U.S. officials:

    Yemen: plenty of kindling
    Yemen has been facing daily protests, and the nation is fraught with all sorts of issues: deep poverty and unemployment, a strong belief that the society is inherently corrupt, an active al-Qaida presence, and an unpopular ruler, who's been in power almost as long as Presidents Ben Ali and Mubarak in Tunisa and Egypt. Overlaying that is a water crisis unlike any other in the world. There has been a strong security presence in Sanaa, the capital, but things could get out of hand.

    Iran: Look to March 21
    The level of Iran's demonstrations surprised demonstration organizers, say U.S. officials. While some reports put the number of demonstrators at a half-million, officials dismissed that number as exaggerated, but said the real number, "tens of thousands, maybe a hundred thousand," was larger than organizers expected. In fact, the vote in the Iranian Majlis (parliament) to prosecute Green Movement leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mahdi Karroubi and former reformist President Mohammad Khatami was a function of the regime's anxiety rather than a realistic piece of legislation. While the protests, the largest since December 2009, are reflective of the Green Movement's strength, U.S. officials say they are uncertain that the protests can be sustained. Next time to look for widespread demonstrations: March 21, the Iranian New Year, known as Nowruz.

    Bahrain: confidence in the streets
    Bahrain is the most interesting to many U.S. analysts. Although there have long been demonstrations by the Shiite majority against the ruling Sunni royal family, this week's demonstrations show a great degree of confidence, fueled in part by the successes on Tunisia and Egypt. The demonstrators are demanding a new constitution that would lessen the power of the king, who now rules absolutely. There are reports that Iran is financing the protests in its role as Guardian of the Shiite faith, but U.S. officials have expressed suspicion about those reports.

    Libya, Syria, Algeria, Saudi Arabia
    As for the rest, U.S. officials say they believe that Libya, Syria and Algeria will continue to have demonstrations, but face brutal repression, which the populace well knows.

    The Saudi regime, the officials say, does not have anywhere near the animosity found elsewhere, in large part because of the nation's wealth.

     

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  • 10
    Feb
    2011
    1:40pm, EST

    Mubarak could leave with $2 billion

    By Robert Windrem
    NBC News investigative producer for special projects

    If Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak is forced into exile, he is likely to have access to billions in assets. But if Egypt’s successor government tries to recover any of it, it will have a hard time, if history is any judge.

    Estimates circulated inside the U.S. government, developed by various agencies, put  Mubarak’s wealth at between $2 billion and $3 billion.  How much of that total is outside of Egypt, and in what form, is uncertain. How much is recoverable is an even smaller fraction.

    AP reported that some in Egypt believed Mubarak controlled $70 billion in assets, but U.S. officials dismissed that number as wildly exaggerated. They noted that Bill Gates, the richest man on the Forbes 400 list, is worth $53 billion.

    Nick Peck, Head of Complex Investigations of Nardello & Co., worked in a similar position with Kroll Associates when that company was hired by Kuwait to track Saddam Hussein’s wealth. He’s also familiar as well with Kroll’s attempts to track, and recover, the wealth looted from the Philippines by the Marcos family.

    “The initial numbers are often very overblown,” says Peck. “Often suspect in terms of how much the official has.”

    Officials say historically most of the assets controlled by dictators remains within their home countries. Peck pointed to a stash of millions of dollars in cash and gold bars found hidden underground in Iraq following the war.

    “Always concerned about their own security, they like to keep an amount liquid in their own country,” says Peck. “But if he’s planning long term, for a future outside the country, a dictator will think, ‘Let me stuff some in Swiss bank or a Panamanian nominee account.’”

    Indeed, finding the hard currency or the gold bars at home is nowhere near as difficult as tracking paper and real assets overseas. Peck points out that the Marcos family invested heavily in midtown Manhattan real estate, while Saddam held tens of millions of dollars in public stock in European companies. The Shah of Iran used a family foundation to acquire a Fifth Avenue office building.

    Proving ownership, says Peck, is difficult.

    “If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it’s likely a duck, but that often doesn’t meet the legal threshold to seize that asset,” he notes. “It’s a tough battle to prove it. There are nominee accounts," accounts in another person's name, "but no bank savings book. What you’ll almost never find is a deposed leader’s name linked to accounts.”

    Peck says he also heard reports while investigating Saddam that certain events would trigger asset transfers from financial institutions in western locales to more obscure institutions.

    There are other common denominators, says Peck. Often times, a trusted family member and/or confidante is located overseas near the assets. Saddam’s half-brother, Barzan al-Tikriti, controlled Saddam’s overseas assets from an office in Geneva. (Barzan, like his half-brother, was hanged by the Iraqi government for crimes against humanity unrelated to his investments.)

    “What people have to understand is there are no shortcuts," Peck said. "It's time consuming and requires some degree of luck in getting the right sources to successfully identify the stolen assets."

    In another country in transition, Tunisia's provisional cabinet on Thursday adopted a battery of "practical mechanisms" to enable it to recover assets of figures of the ousted regime, the country’s official news agency said.

    Once recovered, "the smuggled and plundered funds and assets" will be used for the development of mainly poorer areas in the country, it said.

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  • 9
    Feb
    2011
    5:46am, EST

    Does Egypt make al-Qaida irrelevant?

    Reuters file

    Ayman al-Zawahiri, deputy to Osama bin Laden, has not been heard from since the Egyptian protests began.

    By Robert Windrem
    NBC News investigative producer
    for special projects

    Two weeks into the Egyptian revolution, there’s been no communiqué, no message from the hills of the Pakistani hinterland. Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri have been notably silent.

    For years, the two have regularly spoken in audio and video messages about events and trends in the Muslim World, attempting to continue their legacy as leaders of radical Islam. Now with Egypt, al-Zawahiri’s home turf, in turmoil, shouldn’t they have issued something?

    An al-Zawahiri aide did release a statement last weekend but it was short and not broadcast. Moreover, the deputy, Thirwat Shehata, was forced to admit that his and al-Zawahiri’s Egyptian Islamic Jihad have had no role in the uprising. “Indeed, the Pharaoh and his rotten party must depart, ” Shehata’s statement said.

    But Shehata is not al-Zawahiri or bin Laden, NBC News analyst and former NSC official Roger Cressey said, adding that without something directly from them, the two “are in danger of becoming the ‘emperors with no clothes’.” Moreover, the lack of an al-Qaida role or even a message was undercutting their influence.


     

    “I think it’s curious why they haven’t. Al-Qaida needs to inject itself. It’s been presented with an opportunity to be supportive of their narrative,” Cressey said.

    One reason, according to analysts inside and outside the U.S. government, could be the declining security situation in northeast Pakistan where both are believed to be hiding.

    Weeks pass and still nothing
    Getting a message out will often take a week to 10 days and involve a network of couriers. Egypt’s revolution is still only two weeks old. But others point out that the first demonstrations in Tunisia began nearly a month ago … and still nothing.

    “They may be working on it,” one counter terrorism analyst inside the U.S. government said. “They operate on their own timetable, not ours. Just because we expect one, doesn’t mean they feel that way.”

    He and others noted that the frequency of statements by al-Zawahiri and bin Laden had dropped off significantly in the last year, which they attribute to the ramped up use of Predators and other armed unmanned aerial vehicles by the U.S.

    Starting in the middle of 2008, the U.S. has carried out 200 or so strikes. They’ve killed some 1,300 militants. Attacks have increased dramatically under President Obama. The strikes have gone from about 35 in 2008 to 50 in 2009 and 115 last year, said a U.S. official.

    “They may simply be hunkered down,” added the counter-terrorism official.

    “These attacks are not just aimed at thwarting operations,” said Cressey. “They are aimed at preventing them from getting out their message.”

    Beyond personal safety — and delays in transmitting a message, often by hand, from secure locations to trusted computers — there may be political considerations.

    Evan Kohlmann, another NBC News analyst who tracks radical Islamic forums, said it’s less personal safety or logistics that have kept bin Laden and al-Zawahiri off the air.

    “I think they are sitting and watching what happens before jumping the gun ... they call it the benefit of hindsight,” Kohlmann said.

    Bruce Riedel, a former high ranking CIA official with a long history in the Middle East, wrote last week that al-Zawahiri “probably also has very mixed feelings about what is going on in his homeland.”

    “No doubt he welcomes Mubarak’s demise,” he added. “He has called for the Egyptian leader’s overthrow for three decades. But al-Qaida and Zawahiri know they have been bypassed in the streets of Cairo, Suez and Alexandria. This is not their revolution and they are not its inspiration. They may try to jump on the bandwagon but this is not their caravan.”

    Peaceful protest seems to work
    The U.S. official said he doesn’t disagree, adding al-Zawahiri may be “nervous” that his whole life’s work may be at risk.

    “He’s worked a lifetime on this and gotten nothing. It’s the demonstrators who are effecting regime change,” he said.

    Cressey added, “Each day’s demonstration shows how irrelevant al-Qaida’s philosophy is because it (al-Qaida philosophy) is based on violence. But al-Qaida had nothing to do with this.”

    And, the U.S. analysts said, this could lead to opportunities for the United States.

    “People see that with patience, consistency and commitment, you can change things,” said the U.S. official. “If there is a peaceful transition, it’s a huge blow to their al-Qaida philosophy, and it follows Tunisians being able to do the same thing. It proves you don’t have to go to Pakistan to carry out a suicide bombing. You can protest.”

    Riedel wrote even the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egyptian politics was unlikely to change the perspective that this is a “disaster” for al-Qaida.

    “They have denounced the Brotherhood for years for participating in Mubarak’s rigged elections and for advocating change through non-violence,” Riedel wrote. “Both Zawahiri and bin Laden were once members ... but long ago they left it because it would not support their use of terror. To see the Brotherhood now playing a significant role in changing Egypt is a major setback for al-Qaida.” 

    Further reading: Who is Ayman al-Zawahiri?

    Update: Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq" (ISI) has published a new written statement appealing “to the Muslims in beloved Egypt.”  In its message, the ISI urged protesters in Egypt to wage violent jihad against the Mubarak regime and avoid “malicious secularism” and “infidel democracy.”

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  • 8
    Feb
    2011
    5:55am, EST

    U.S. and Israel trust Egypt's VP, but do Egyptians?

    REUTERS/Loay Abu Haykel

    Omar Suleiman, Egyptian intelligence chief and vice president

    By Robert Windrem
    NBC News investigative producer
    for special projects

    Increasingly, the U.S. is placing its trust in Omar Suleiman’s ability to serve as an intermediary between Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and those calling for democracy in the Arab world’s most populous nation.

    But while Suleiman, the longtime intelligence chief and new Egyptian vice president, has long been a favorite of U.S. and Israeli officials, his animosity toward some in the Egyptian resistance may make it difficult to serve as a go-between.

    According to reports out of the White House, the U.S. sees Suleiman as the best short-term solution, one in which there is both real change and political stability, a difficult job with virtually all sides calling for Mubarak to step down.

    Typical of the effusive praise U.S. officials have lavished on Suleiman over the years is this excerpt from former CIA Director George Tenet, in his 2007 memoir, “At the Center of the Storm.”

    “Omar Suleiman has been head of the Egyptian intelligence service for many years. A general as well as an intelligence chief, Umar is tall and regal looking, a very powerful man, very deliberate in his speech. He’s also tough and engaging. In a world filled with shadows, he is straight up and down,” Tenet stated as he wrote about the Middle East peace process.

    “Umar has also done as much behind the scenes as anyone else I can think of to try to bring peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis,” he added. 

    “That was true when the United States was still engaged in the process. It’s even more so now that we are long gone from it. When nobody was trying to go see Hamas, when nobody was talking to the Palestinians, when nobody was talking to the Israelis, when nobody was pushing forward with innovative ideas to try to get people talking to each other, Umar was on the ground taking risks,” he continued.

    At many of the meetings Tenet had with Suleiman, his then chief of staff, John Brennan, was present.  Brennan, who learned Arabic in Cairo, is now President Obama’s highly trusted counterterrorism adviser and plays an increasingly larger role in National Security Council discussions on Egypt.

    More recently, Suleiman was credited by U.S. and Israeli officials with keeping arms out of Gaza.  Suleiman also often carried messages from Israel and the U.S. to Hamas.

    The week before the revolt began in Cairo, in fact, Suleiman was quoted as warning Hamas that unless it released an Israeli soldier it would face serious consequences. 

    The Jerusalem Post reported on Jan. 29 that Suleiman warned Hamas that he expected “a massive operation” against Hamas in Gaza unless IDF soldier Gilad Schalit, held in Gaza for almost two years, is released.

    While the U.S. and Israel trust him, there are indications that at least one party in the Egyptian opposition does not.

    Mark Hosenball of Reuters reported this weekend that U.S. diplomatic documents published by WikiLeaks show that Suleiman has long sought to demonize the opposition Muslim Brotherhood in his contacts with skeptical U.S. officials.

    According to a February 2006 diplomatic cable, Suleiman accused the Muslim Brotherhood of spawning “11 different Islamist extremist organizations,  most notably the Egyptian Islamic Jihad and the Gama'a Islamiya (Islamic Group).″ 

    The same month, in another cable, he is quoted as describing as “unfortunate” the Muslim Brotherhood’s success in recent parliamentary elections and suggesting Egypt needs new measures to restrain them.

    Suleiman met this week with two representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood as part of a larger meeting with protest leaders and prominent Egyptians.

    After Suleiman described the meeting as a productive negotiation, other participants denounced his account as a ploy to taint them as collaborators.

    While U.S. officials quoted in the WikiLeaks cables admit the Muslim Brotherhood has among its membership “extremists both we and the Egyptian government oppose, Egyptian authorities have a long history of threatening us with the MB bogeyman.″

    Who is Omar Suleiman? There's more in the video below from msnbc TV:
     

    Columbia University Prof. Rashid Khalidi shares his insight on the newly-appointed vice president of Egypt.

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  • 7
    Feb
    2011
    8:29am, EST

    What do we know about Egypt's arsenal?

    By Robert Windrem
    NBC News investigative producer for special projects

    NBC News has obtained more than a dozen documents from the United States, Russia and Israel that shed some light on several Egyptian weapons of mass destruction programs, including its nuclear potential and details of a joint North Korean-Egyptian missile development agreement.

    The documents, stretching back two decades, reveal an Egyptian commitment to research and development of WMDs, the acronym for weapons of mass destruction that thrust itself into the common lexicon during the Iraq war. They also reveal that Cairo is interested in nuclear and radiological weapons, though the extent of that interest is far from clear.

    The U.S. has long known about but tolerated because of Egypt’s central role in both the Middle East peace talks and counterterrorism. To quote one congressional expert on arms proliferation, "If they were any other Arab state, we would be all over them every day on these issues."

    Related story: Concerns grow over Egypt's WMD research

    At the same time, U.S., Israeli and Russian officials have expressed concerns that the Egyptian weapons programs — particularly its missile expertise – has the potential to destabilize the relative peace that has reigned in the Middle East for several decades. Despite these concerns, the officials say, Egypt has continued to work on many of these programs.

    Egyptians have defended its development of WMDs as a necessary counterbalance to Israel's weapons capabilities, which are daunting even to the first Arab state to sign a peace treaty with the Jewish state. With an estimated 200 nuclear warheads — bigger than Great Britain’s arsenal — and 100 medium-range missiles, Israel is in a world of diminishing nuclear programs, a regional superpower — at least.

    Here is a breakdown on the Egyptian programs, drawn from the U.S., Russian and Israeli documents, all of which were either publicly disseminated or declassified under the Freedom of Information Act: 

    Nuclear proliferation
    The most revealing document in the trove is a Jan. 28, 1993, report by the Foreign Intelligence Service, the KGB's successor organization. The report, titled “Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction,” was issued at a time of extraordinary public openness in Russia and has not been updated since.

    The report stated that while Egypt had "no special program of military-applied research in the nuclear sphere" at the time, it had made significant advances on nuclear technology.

    Among other things, it said Egypt had:

    • Built a research reactor at Inshas, north of Cairo, built with help from Argentina.
    • Contracted with Russia to supply a MGD-20 cyclotron accelerator, which would be helpful in exploring uranium enrichment technologies.
    • Begun construction of a facility at its Inshas research center that “in its design features and engineering protection could in the future be used to obtain weapons-grade plutonium from the uranium irradiated in the research reactors."

    In addition, NBC News obtained a U.S. Customs Service account of a debriefing of an Egyptian-American spy, Abdel Kadr Helmy. Helmy, who was jailed in the 1980s for trying to obtain various missile technologies  including Pershing-II guidance packages – said in the interviews that Egypt had an active nuclear weapons development program that included sending uranium to Pakistan for enrichment to bomb-grade levels. He also said that an Egyptian Brigadier General, Ahmad Nashet, ran both the civilian nuclear establishment in Cairo as well as the nascent bomb program.

    Helmy subsequently disavowed the claim, and Egypt has steadfastly denied interest in nuclear weapons.

    Chemical weapons
    The Egyptians are also interested in chemical weapons. Specifically, the FIS document notes: "Techniques of the production of nerve-paralyzing and blister-producing toxic agents have been assimilated."

    Furthermore, the FIS said, "There is information to the effect that Egypt is displaying interest in purchases overseas of warheads intended for filling with liquid chemical warfare agents. The stockpiles of toxic substances available at this time are insufficient for broad-based operations, but the industrial potential would permit the development of the additional production in a relatively short time." It may be that the warheads the Russians discussed were ultimately bound for Iraq. 

    Biological weapons
    Similarly, the Egyptians have a biological weapons program, according to statements from the FIS, the CIA and the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency dating back to the 1990s.

    "At the start of the 1970s," the FIS report stated, "President Sadat confirmed this, announcing the presence in Egypt of a stockpile of biological agents stored in refrigerating plants. Toxins of varying nature are being studied and techniques for their production and refinement are being developed at the present time in a (unnamed) national research center."

    In response to a question during a congressional hearing on WMD proliferation on Feb. 24, 1993, CIA Director R. James Woolsey confirmed that Egypt is counted as a nation with biological weapons capability.

    And in three annual reports to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee since 1995, the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency has used the same language to assess the Egyptian program: "The United States believes that Egypt had developed biological agents by 1972. There is no evidence to indicate that Egypt has eliminated this capability and it remains likely that the Egyptian capability to conduct biological warfare continues to exist."

    What is intriguing about these reports is that, unlike a similar report in 1994, they did not include this sentence: "The United States however has not, however, obtained recent information on this program" — the implication being that the U.S. did receive information about the program starting in 1995, though it’s not clear what that information was.

    Missiles
    The area where Egypt excels is in missile development.

    The FIS report noted: "By 1990, Egypt's missile forces were armed with a regiment each of Soviet Scud-B (with a range of 300 kilometers) and Frog 7 (70 km) transporter-erector-launchers and also a certain quantity of Sakr 80 and Sakr 365 Egyptian-Iraqi-North Korean short-range missiles. It is technically possible to fit the Scud and Frog warheads with chemical weapons.”

    The report also noted that China had reached an agreement with Egypt to assist in modernizing a manufacturing plant to build “new modifications of the Scud B-class missiles and three domestic types of Egyptian surface-to-surface missiles."

    A 1992 Israeli Defense Forces memorandum on Mideast missile programs provided this appraisal of the Egyptian program aimed at acquiring and supporting ground-to-ground missiles, or GGM in weapons-speak:

    "During the 1950s, and aided by German Nazi scientists, a concerted effort was made to build factories which would manufacture missiles,” it said. “This effort continued over the years; at present the Egyptian army diverts resources to this endeavor.”

    The memo said that the Egyptian program was focused on the Scud, and that North Korea was its main ally. In the early 1980s, it said, North Korea bought tens of Russian-made medium-range Scud-B missiles from the Egyptians and, in exchange, helped the Egyptians set up the infrastructure for missile production and assembly. The Egyptian factories are said to have begin active production in 1993.

    An even bigger concern among foreign intelligence services is the medium-range Condor II missile program, a joint project of Egypt, Argentina and Iraq.

    In congressional testimony on April 18, 1991, U.S. Customs Service agent Daniel Burns stated that Abdelkader Helmy, the Egyptian-American rocket scientist who had pleaded guilty to helping Egypt obtain equipment and material for the Condor-II missile discussed with him several projects, including an “Egyptian effort to develop a nuclear warhead, including the Cobalt-60 effort and the purchase of uranium from France."

    Helmy’s statement is of particular concern as Cobalt-60, a radioactive isotope that could be used in a radiological or "dirty" bomb, which disperses radioactive material on detonation.

    As stated above, Helmy later disavowed the statement and returned to Egypt. Egypt has denied any interest in nuclear weapons.

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    The conclusion by George Bernard Shaw is making more sense every day----he said that " this world is actually an Interplanitery Lunatic Asylum!"

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