Does Egypt make al-Qaida irrelevant?

Reuters file

Ayman al-Zawahiri, deputy to Osama bin Laden, has not been heard from since the Egyptian protests began.

By Robert Windrem
NBC News investigative producer
for special projects

Two weeks into the Egyptian revolution, there’s been no communiqué, no message from the hills of the Pakistani hinterland. Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri have been notably silent.

For years, the two have regularly spoken in audio and video messages about events and trends in the Muslim World, attempting to continue their legacy as leaders of radical Islam. Now with Egypt, al-Zawahiri’s home turf, in turmoil, shouldn’t they have issued something?

An al-Zawahiri aide did release a statement last weekend but it was short and not broadcast. Moreover, the deputy, Thirwat Shehata, was forced to admit that his and al-Zawahiri’s Egyptian Islamic Jihad have had no role in the uprising. “Indeed, the Pharaoh and his rotten party must depart, ” Shehata’s statement said.

But Shehata is not al-Zawahiri or bin Laden, NBC News analyst and former NSC official Roger Cressey said, adding that without something directly from them, the two “are in danger of becoming the ‘emperors with no clothes’.” Moreover, the lack of an al-Qaida role or even a message was undercutting their influence.


 

“I think it’s curious why they haven’t. Al-Qaida needs to inject itself. It’s been presented with an opportunity to be supportive of their narrative,” Cressey said.

One reason, according to analysts inside and outside the U.S. government, could be the declining security situation in northeast Pakistan where both are believed to be hiding.

Weeks pass and still nothing
Getting a message out will often take a week to 10 days and involve a network of couriers. Egypt’s revolution is still only two weeks old. But others point out that the first demonstrations in Tunisia began nearly a month ago … and still nothing.

“They may be working on it,” one counter terrorism analyst inside the U.S. government said. “They operate on their own timetable, not ours. Just because we expect one, doesn’t mean they feel that way.”

He and others noted that the frequency of statements by al-Zawahiri and bin Laden had dropped off significantly in the last year, which they attribute to the ramped up use of Predators and other armed unmanned aerial vehicles by the U.S.

Starting in the middle of 2008, the U.S. has carried out 200 or so strikes. They’ve killed some 1,300 militants. Attacks have increased dramatically under President Obama. The strikes have gone from about 35 in 2008 to 50 in 2009 and 115 last year, said a U.S. official.

“They may simply be hunkered down,” added the counter-terrorism official.

“These attacks are not just aimed at thwarting operations,” said Cressey. “They are aimed at preventing them from getting out their message.”

Beyond personal safety — and delays in transmitting a message, often by hand, from secure locations to trusted computers — there may be political considerations.

Evan Kohlmann, another NBC News analyst who tracks radical Islamic forums, said it’s less personal safety or logistics that have kept bin Laden and al-Zawahiri off the air.

“I think they are sitting and watching what happens before jumping the gun ... they call it the benefit of hindsight,” Kohlmann said.

Bruce Riedel, a former high ranking CIA official with a long history in the Middle East, wrote last week that al-Zawahiri “probably also has very mixed feelings about what is going on in his homeland.”

“No doubt he welcomes Mubarak’s demise,” he added. “He has called for the Egyptian leader’s overthrow for three decades. But al-Qaida and Zawahiri know they have been bypassed in the streets of Cairo, Suez and Alexandria. This is not their revolution and they are not its inspiration. They may try to jump on the bandwagon but this is not their caravan.”

Peaceful protest seems to work
The U.S. official said he doesn’t disagree, adding al-Zawahiri may be “nervous” that his whole life’s work may be at risk.

“He’s worked a lifetime on this and gotten nothing. It’s the demonstrators who are effecting regime change,” he said.

Cressey added, “Each day’s demonstration shows how irrelevant al-Qaida’s philosophy is because it (al-Qaida philosophy) is based on violence. But al-Qaida had nothing to do with this.”

And, the U.S. analysts said, this could lead to opportunities for the United States.

“People see that with patience, consistency and commitment, you can change things,” said the U.S. official. “If there is a peaceful transition, it’s a huge blow to their al-Qaida philosophy, and it follows Tunisians being able to do the same thing. It proves you don’t have to go to Pakistan to carry out a suicide bombing. You can protest.”

Riedel wrote even the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egyptian politics was unlikely to change the perspective that this is a “disaster” for al-Qaida.

“They have denounced the Brotherhood for years for participating in Mubarak’s rigged elections and for advocating change through non-violence,” Riedel wrote. “Both Zawahiri and bin Laden were once members ... but long ago they left it because it would not support their use of terror. To see the Brotherhood now playing a significant role in changing Egypt is a major setback for al-Qaida.” 

Further reading: Who is Ayman al-Zawahiri?

Update: Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq" (ISI) has published a new written statement appealing “to the Muslims in beloved Egypt.”  In its message, the ISI urged protesters in Egypt to wage violent jihad against the Mubarak regime and avoid “malicious secularism” and “infidel democracy.”

 

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A peaceful transition to a new (hopefully) democratic regime would be an enormous blow, both to Al Qaeda, and to those here in the U.S. who are convinced that Muslims are incapable of any system of peaceful existence.

  • 30 votes
#1 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 6:21 AM EST

KILLERBUZZ

If you think that al Qaeda or any of the other militant Muslim organisations are not relevant, not paying attention or some how not taking action behind the scenes or disguised in front of the scenes you are dead wrong I hope I am wrong but I think the quality individuals behind this new democracy movement in Egypt will soon be in for a rude awakening

  • 13 votes
#1.1 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:00 AM EST

This article was written too soon. Way too soon to draw this conclusion or to even ask the question. Its not done yet, dummies, its just started.

  • 14 votes
#1.2 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:43 AM EST

dman-353357 - A peaceful transition to a new (hopefully) democratic regime would be an enormous blow, both to Al Qaeda, and to those here in the U.S. who are convinced that Muslims are incapable of any system of peaceful existence.

Peaceful (your arse on the line).

300 reported dead in Egypt protests

http://www.infowars.com/300-reported-dead-in-egypt-protests/

As founded by the Muslim Brotherhood founders the Military side of Islam (as part of the Worldwide Islamic Military, Hezbollah, Hamas, Army of Islam, etc. to carry out the War Against Christians, Jews, Unbelievers (everyone else, including "lesser" Islamic Believers) in accordance with the Holy Koran (Quran) 109 verses (Suras) of the 114 verses of the Holy Koran (Quran) that Calls All Islamic Believers to War Against the Christians, Jews, Unbelievers for Death Penalty Crimes Against Allah and His Prophet. The Holy Koran (Quran) Calls to War are reinforced by the Modern Islamic Laws (Hadith Laws, Fiqh Laws, Sharia Laws, etc.).

The reason that you are not hearing from Al Quada, is that it is Winter (near Arctic Conditions, last year we had two avalanches) here (Pamir, the Roof of the World), and we (US Military Special Warfare) are conducting US Military Asymmetric (Winter) Mountain Warfare against Al Quada, the Fundamentalist Islamic Taliban, the Pakistanis Fundamentalist Islamic Taliban, the Worldwide Hamas Foreign Fighters, Islamic Chechen Foreign Fighters, Islamic Egyptian Foreign Fighters, Army of Islam, etc..

  • 18 votes
#1.3 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:44 AM EST

I bet Bin Laden is brewing up something special for us at this very moment. These people are patient, lets not be fools again. But we will be........... Lets at least plug the holes in our border for Christ's sake.

  • 12 votes
#1.4 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 8:06 AM EST

The reason that you are not hearing from Al Quada, is that it is Winter (near Arctic Conditions,

Guess what, sport. Al Qaeda is quite capable of communicating with its contacts around the world, even in the dead of winter, even from Afghanistan. The western world usually get a video or audio news letter from Osama bin Laden around Christmas every year.

What's going on in Egypt is not totally devoid of violence. But it is a far cry from the chaos which beset Iraq in 2005 and 2006, after Saddam Hussein was removed, and at least some of the violence has been due to the absence of police during these past weeks. In 2005 and 2006 Al Qaeda's influence in Iraq exploded in the power vacuum left by Saddam's ouster. We're not seeing such involvement here.

  • 9 votes
#1.5 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 8:16 AM EST

dman-353357 Guess what, sport. Al Qaeda is quite capable of communicating with its contacts around the world, even in the dead of winter, even from Afghanistan.

Proves you know nothing (have never been here nor Iraq). We have been here since before the US Military Invasion (destroying the Fundamentalist Islamic Taliban Governments infrastructure and later US Military Pathfinder Operations for the Main US Military Forces).

In my previous post (other Newsvine Topic) I mentioned Iraq in detail since the US Military Training Teams to Iraq from Germany during the Iran Iraq Wars, prior to the First Gulf War, prior to the US Military Invasion (under Operation Iraqis Freedom) and our (my men, women, myself) involvements.

STOP POSTING UNINFORMED NONSENSE.

  • 5 votes
#1.6 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 9:01 AM EST
Comment author avatarErnie-859983Expand Comment Comment collapsed by the community

Just nuke the whole area, who cares, worthless rug headed basterds, waste of humanity, should wipe our a$$ess on their rug heads

  • 2 votes
#1.7 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 9:11 AM EST

Most likely had the taliban and Al Qaeda not used Iraq as a distraction to take the heat off themselves in Afghanistan and Pakistan where they were chased to, they would never would have been in Iraq either. Maybe had the world left Afghanistan and declared success after driving the Russians out of Afghanistan and let that nation rebuild itself, the majority of the terrorists acts that have transpired would not have happened and Afghanistan could have decided its own fate as the Egyptians are doing now.

  • 3 votes
#1.8 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 9:14 AM EST

Do you really think Bin Laden is still alive? Why would anybody listen to this goat@%*ker. He tells muslims to go die for a cause while he hides under a rock. I think he is buried underground in tora bora region.

  • 5 votes
#1.9 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 9:29 AM EST

Al Qaeda's been the boogey man for too long. No one is buying into the existence of a worldwide Muslim-led organization that could knock down your door and take your babies, anymore. Let's face it, the common man with internet access is what corrupt world leadership should be fearing at this point.

  • 6 votes
#1.10 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 9:35 AM EST

I agree LMARCT. This is far from over in Egypt. The VP of Egypt this morning just warned the protesters to cool it or it could lead to a complete collapse of the existing Government structure and would cause the police to take harsher actions. I hope that it has a good out come for the people of Egypt.

  • 4 votes
#1.11 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 9:38 AM EST

Could someone explain this to me?

If what this article says is true, muslims have been shown that violence isnt the answer by the recent events in Egypt.

Are muslims so simplistic and stupid that they were unable to come to this conclusion without the demonstrations in Egypt?

Obviously this is relevant only to violent muslims as the 'peaceful' muslims already knew this.

  • 2 votes
#1.12 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 9:39 AM EST

Dont you guys see that their religion, which gives their whole lives meaning, does not allow for freedoms like we here in the U.S. know them? This is an irresponsibly silly article.

  • 2 votes
#1.13 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 9:54 AM EST

Very irresponsible and contrived to be more of a welcoming taunt than anything else.

  • 4 votes
#1.14 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 9:59 AM EST

This article is already getting debunked by MSNBC's own postings. There is now a story on the featured window about Egyptian police threatening to use police tools against the protesters if they dont stop haha. That didnt last long!

  • 2 votes
#1.15 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 10:11 AM EST

Most of the worlds violence is committed and perpetuated by the US not by Al Qiada. The US propaganda machine is being upstaged by a semi peaceful (except by those CIA backed Mubarack supporters) overthrow of a US installed and US dictated Government in the middle east.

  • 1 vote
#1.16 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 10:43 AM EST

It's funny to me, because in 2008 the YOUTH of america overwhelmingly voted for Obama, and wanted him to bring about great change. And when he tried to do that, the OLD PEOPLE of america went banana's and formed the Tea Party (check their demographics, im not wrong on this).

And here, we see the youth in Egypt demanding change and democracy, and the OLD PEOPLE in egypt fighting it. Americans are deploring Mubarak and his military to use restraint, and so far he's doing that - and im not sure if its because we are asking him to, or what...but in reality, he doesnt have to. History shows that if you believe in your way of doing things badly enough, using violence to achieve it is ok.

Just see all the bombs we've dropped on the middle east. Just see every bloody revolution in the worlds history, including our own. And just see the very language used by the tea party - threatening 2nd AMENDMENT REMEDIES if they dont get their way.

A little ironic dont you think?

It gets even more funny when you realize we supported and propped up Mubarak for the past 30 years, making his dictatorship possible. The youth who are revolting and hate him, by default HATE US for keeping him in power for our own reasons and needs.

We didnt care about the people of egypt then, and we certainly dont care now.

All we care about is whether or not what replaces Mubarak is hostile or friendly to us...I just dont grasp where the unrealistic optimism comes from that they'll be friendly to us. History shows that just isnt going to be true.

  • 5 votes
#1.17 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 11:09 AM EST

This is a nonsense article. If Egypt makes a smooth and peacefull transition into a democratic and fair government, it will be the exception in the region, not the rule.

Make Al Qaida irrelevant? Hardly! That group preys on people that are disenfranchised with their lives. They make great headway in countries that have been in a state of civil turmoil for decades! They don't fare as easily in regions where there has been a relatively stable government and civil discipline however.

It's why I think Al Qaida didn't and hasn't taken off in Iraq but does fantastically well in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia etc. All of the countries that had a relatively well-functioning government are predominantly made up of citizens that are not interested in teaming up with and sheltering bands of merauders and religious-zealot-anarchists.

If however the region is full of disenfranchised people who have no trust in their government being able to keep the peace and order. Those people will quickly acquiesce or even side with those that come storming over the hills like the Mongol Hordes of the 12th and 13th centuries.

  • 1 vote
#1.18 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 11:58 AM EST

Jessica, when Judas Priest sang that "you dont have to be old to be wiiisseee" They were joking. You will see once you get older. Ohhh I bought into it too when I was young hehe

    #1.19 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 12:23 PM EST

    Jessica - I agree with your outlook except the Obama/Tea Party reference. Thoughful. However, I am unable to see what our political wranglings have to do in this context. Every country has its own political agendas, right and left etc. Irrespective of Obama/Tea Party, the positions held by both in this context would be the same, "Hoping that it works to our advantage".

    I agree with the other poster, thoughtless article/headline. The experts quoted in the article are presenting equally compelling argument for either side. So why take a side for the headline?

      #1.20 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 1:17 PM EST

      The violence which has occurred during the past week in Cairo was mostly a direct result of pro-Mubarek factions being egged on via electronic communications from agents of government to "go and attack" the demonstrators in order to "save egypt". When the cynicism of this manipulative tactic was revealed, it ended, and a basically peaceful tone has returned to the demonstrations.

        #1.21 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 1:28 PM EST

        Irrelevant ya right. Maybe up the the time when they shove a bomb up yer azz. What a knuckelhead.

          #1.22 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 2:14 PM EST

          Ken Waltz,, Piss-Off Numbnutz and If your in America Get the Hell out of My Country. O.K. Einstein, Explain Why is more Muslims being Killed by other Muslims than ALL Military deaths thus far?, Please, Your giving Stupid a Bad Name.

          • 1 vote
          #1.23 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 2:18 PM EST

          While I want government to change, others want government to collapse and they have a greater say by far than I.

            #1.24 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 3:21 PM EST

            Even the ultraconservative Muslim Brotherhood doesn't want to be thought as extremists like Al Qeada. They vowed not to run a candidate for election this fall. Whether or not they do not run a candidate remains to be seen. I would like to see a pro-democracy secular party arise that isn't Islamic, (Like the Muslim Brotherhood), since the majority of people in Egypt are well educated and less than 1/5 are supportive of an Islamic Theocracy. It would be nice to see a democracy akin to the type that is in Turkey develop in Egypt. Many of the supporters of the uprising are young disillusioned people who are tired of the 29 years of military style dictatorship of the Mubarak regime. They long for political freedoms enjoyed in Europe and America. Hopefully the government doesn't collapse since strong men of the Muslim Brotherhood would be willing to step in and then we could have another Islamic government like Iran evolve.

            • 3 votes
            #1.25 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 3:48 PM EST

            It is Zawahiri and al-Qaeda who are the real infidels. Sooner or later the whole world will realize that they worship nothing but bloodshed and their own power, and that their band of muharibun puppets are nothing more than tragically misguided dupes whose deeds are an insult to everything God has taught us through the prophets.

              #1.26 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 6:51 PM EST

              Proves you know nothing (have never been here nor Iraq).

              True, but I know something about global communications in the modern age, and I know that Al Qaeda is not solely closeted in caves in Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden is most reliably reported to be in Pakistan, and if he is, he has access to means of communications, regardless of the weather.

              Do you really believe that he, or other Al Qaeda members in Karachi, are incapable of sending instructions to Cairo or Alexandria because of snow in the Pamir Mountains?

              Stop posting half-reasoned nonsense.

              If he could do something to increase the level of violence in Egypt, he would be doing so.

                #1.27 - Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:01 AM EST

                should wipe our a$$ess on their rug heads.

                Ernie-859983, you are suspended for a day for violating rule # 5 of the Code of Honor.

                Don't death wish and make derogatory comments towards an entire group of people. Thanks!

                • 1 vote
                #1.29 - Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:01 PM EST

                The fact that you stated he is still alive, is complete nonsense!!

                ...and your evidence would be what?

                  #1.30 - Thu Feb 10, 2011 11:37 PM EST

                  It's good that they seem to be keeping their noses out of it for now. Unfortunately, the Egyptian government still seems to want to poke that sleeping bear with a big stick by refusing to compromise and making threats to the demonstrators. That's the kind of stuf al-Qaida responds to.

                  • 1 vote
                  Reply#2 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 6:30 AM EST

                  none of what you say rings true..al qaeda may be watching silently but they have hardly abandoned Egypt nor any place in the world..they are part of an Islamic jihad international network to bring in sharia states by violence..some are sunnis and some shiites.. but they never withdraw from a battle..they are also very busy in Afghanistan and Pakistan..two of their highest priorities. and from different sources it seems they are being decimated there..you won`t be reading that on NBC..but it`s out there.... also in Iraq they sufferd huge loses and their Sunni allies turned against them for being foreign agitators..their silence is just a wait and see attitude..they continues to be the deadly terrorists they`ve always been..

                  • 9 votes
                  Reply#3 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 6:31 AM EST

                  And what are your sources for this intelligence information????

                  • 2 votes
                  #3.1 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 9:01 AM EST

                  It doesn't take too much intelligence to see that Al Queda has a big hand in this uprising. Start the ball rolling, let the students take over, and sit back and enjoy the fun. Joan Baez, the Black Panthers, the flower people sound familiar to you?

                    #3.2 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 9:41 AM EST

                    Based upon previous reports, I think Al Qaida is a politically astute organization. There is no need for them to be openly active in the turmoil in Egypt. In fact, their obvious involvement would be counter-productive. The demonstrators are looking for more freedoms - and Al Qaida represents the opposite. Once Mubarek is gone and a power vacuum exists, Al Qaida will be in a much better position to step in. These people may be evil - but they are not idiots.

                    • 1 vote
                    #3.3 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 10:20 AM EST

                    BillyBoy-298303

                    Your response is completely irrelevant to this topic. History teaches us that Baez and the flower people, etc, were protesting against the war in Vietnam, while the Black Panthers mainly organized to protect Black People and Neighborhoods from police brutality. Hopefully you are intelligent enough to see there is no relation to the current situation in Egypt.

                    bart martin made a very intelligent post about Egypt. I want to know where he got his facts?

                    • 1 vote
                    #3.4 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 10:29 AM EST

                    Washington D.C allows al qaida to operate the way it does. this country is not looking out for the interests of the citizens of the u.s.a. we should have been making alternatives fuels like Brazil has been doing for years. Washington does business we terrorists gives them money still that makes it worse. we allow bad behavior with Muslim countries. it will only get worse. Egypt is a prime example.

                    • 2 votes
                    Reply#4 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 6:36 AM EST

                    what you say doesn`t ring true ..al quada continues to be a very big threat in Egypt and all over the world..their wait and see attitude must not be confused from withdrawing from the battle.. which they never do..and of course the brotherhood works very nicely with al qaeda ..and I imagine they have on the various terrorist attacks in Egypt and on assasinations ..both thwarted and carried out. and really there is very little differnce brtween the 2 groups.. in spite of the more sheepish clothing that the brotherhhod wears to disguise the wolf inside...we must be eternally vigilent! the stakes are much too high to let down our guard!!

                    • 5 votes
                    Reply#5 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 6:39 AM EST

                    U.S. analysts say events could be a setback for Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida, proving that violence isn't necessary to change regimes in Middle East

                    No , all it takes is to put a Muslim Lib in the white house and all of our allies fall apart!!

                    • 8 votes
                    Reply#6 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 6:45 AM EST

                    Any excuse to put bogyman Bin Laden back in a headline. Never mind that he's probably dead. Or the fact that he's a creation of the CIA. Or that he has yet to be connected to 9/11 by the FBI.

                    • 4 votes
                    Reply#7 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 6:47 AM EST

                    So I suppose the video of Bin Laden praising the success of the 9/11 attack with his followers was faked by the FBI/CIA? Or maybe the Illuminati faked it. Or Cthulu.

                      #7.1 - Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:04 AM EST

                      Perhaps Bin Laden has no further need to prop up the Bush regime until Jeb is selected to be our next king.

                      • 3 votes
                      Reply#8 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 6:51 AM EST

                      Jeb Bush as the Republican nominee? Maybe in 2016 ?

                      I think Mitch Daniels, Govenor from Indiana would be the best Republican selection. He's had a few years of balanced budgets, now has a budget surplus of $1.2 Billions Dollars, and is a Staunch Conservative.

                      I suspect the Republicans will go with Huckabee, Romney, Palin, Pawlenty or Gingrich. Any of these will certainly spell disaster, at least from my perspective.

                      • 1 vote
                      #8.1 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 11:31 AM EST

                      If you think that al Qaeda or any of the other militant Muslim organisations are not relevant, not paying attention or some how not taking action behind the scenes or disguised in front of the scenes you are dead wrong I hope I am wrong but I think the quality individuals behind this new democracy movement in Egypt will soon be in for a rude awakening

                      • 1 vote
                      Reply#9 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 6:51 AM EST

                      The so-called 'experts' the media relies on are anything but, and this article illustrates that nicely.

                      • 2 votes
                      Reply#10 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 6:59 AM EST

                      The definition of an "expert" is someone who has read a thick book that no one else has read."

                        #10.1 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 2:09 PM EST

                        This is stupid beyond belief. The enemy of al Qaeda is secularism. Egypt will remain a secular state no matter what the Muslim Brotherhood says.

                        Journalism FAIL.

                        • 3 votes
                        Reply#11 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:01 AM EST

                        true said:)

                          #11.1 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 8:54 AM EST

                          I do agree somewhat and while Egypt is secular, Al Qaeda and or the Muslim Brotherhood COULD use a gap in power or solidarity to seize control of Egypt. I have read a couple of reports where members of the Muslim Brotherhood was using social media to get people into the street to protest in the name of democracy.

                          If any radical group uses the mask of Democracy or a gap in leadership to grab control of Egypt, the face of the middle east could change overnight and we, the U.S., would lose a powerful ally.

                            #11.2 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 9:34 AM EST

                            what you say doesn`t ring true ..al quada continues to be a very big threat in Egypt and all over the world

                            News flash--it's not 2002 anymore, Poindexter.

                            There are more active professional football players in the NFL than there are active members of al Qaeda.

                            • 4 votes
                            Reply#12 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:02 AM EST

                            Do you have specific information on this or is this just an uneducated guess.

                            • 2 votes
                            #12.1 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 8:30 AM EST

                            I'm guessing unedjamacated.

                            • 1 vote
                            #12.2 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 8:47 AM EST

                            Norma Rodgers, If you aren't right, your awful close! ... al Qaeda has been irrelevant for several years ..

                            except to us ...

                            • 1 vote
                            #12.3 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 9:13 AM EST

                            my guess( that's right I admit its a guess!!LOL) is that Al quaeda is no longer a major player in the world at large. if we hear anything from them its just pontification. empty boasts/threats from a depleted/group that must stay in hiding. HEY OSAMA!! want a side of rocks w/your sand? how about we supersize that drone hellfire missile for ya?(Thats if he's even still alive.)

                            • 1 vote
                            #12.4 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 9:47 AM EST

                            CIA Director Panetta estimated that there were only a few hundred militants. Are all of them the new number 3 or number 4 in al Qaeda?

                            Edjimicate yourself.

                              #12.5 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 11:23 AM EST

                              Really? Where did you get this absurd idea?

                                #12.6 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 2:10 PM EST

                                They are likely smart enough to keep their mouths shut because they do want the regime to fall and they realize that if they interject it will give the regime legitimacy for holding out and provide reason for the U.S. to not exert pressure on the regime. We need to support democracy everywhere and not be hypocrites. We need to have faith that the act of governing and the spirit of democracy will temper the radicals. If it doesn't we'll just have to kill them all. Give peace a chance.

                                • 2 votes
                                Reply#13 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:03 AM EST

                                Perhaps, but you know our government will do everything in its power to insure that Al-Qaida is relevant and fearful again to the American public, just so we can continue our f***ed up foreign policy that we've been following for the past 10 years.

                                • 4 votes
                                Reply#14 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:14 AM EST

                                Unfortunately, unrest in Egypt is just the tip of the iceberg. Most Middle East nations face the same demographic issues as Egypt; a massive number of young people who simply cannot find jobs and are extremely unhappy with their inability to start families or purchase homes.

                                Here is a look at just how desperate the situation is for young and highly educated Egyptians:

                                http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2011/02/egypt-unemployed-population-cohort.html

                                Even al-Qaeda cannot solve demographic problems.

                                  Reply#15 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:15 AM EST

                                  Organizations like al-Qaeda feed off of poverty and youth to bolster their numbers...

                                    #15.1 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 9:57 AM EST

                                    If they can't reproduce, then they can't make any more little terrorists!

                                      #15.2 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 2:11 PM EST

                                      Does OBL get online or cable TV I wonder? I know I could not live without either for more than a day.Guess I would not make a good terrorist.

                                        Reply#16 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:16 AM EST

                                        he watchs Fox News all day long.

                                          #16.1 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 8:56 AM EST

                                          There is no real terrorist organization called "Al-Qaeda". That's the beautifull thing about it. It's an illusive threat, created to inject fear, and to make you project some kind of image of insecurity. That image you have in your head, in turn, let's you ask for more security from your government, which in turns, strips you of more basic rights. We are all the same. So called terrorist, and "peacefull" people in the western and eastern world. We are ALL violent, just because you don't use physical force, does not mean you are not violent. We, humanity, today, are ruthless. Think about it, when you go to work? or when you run a business.. don't you have to be greedy, ruthless, lie? exactly! and then you come home and say, you are an angel. Those new shoes you bought, created a lot of suffering.. so did you create a lot of suffering, when you bought that Blackberry, or that new Iphone. Or that new BMW.. Or, that new house you are building. / Don't believe the hype. Stop playing games. Live in the real world, not the virtual world. You will have to one day.

                                          • 4 votes
                                          Reply#17 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:18 AM EST

                                          Jhonattan; I believe you to be correct about Al Quaida,it was made up by the war machine known as the pentagon and everytime anything happens in the middle east they ring the alarm to keep the right wing on full alert.It's a shame alot of the right wing are smarter than that but they just can't break from party lines and tell the truth

                                          • 1 vote
                                          #17.1 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 9:17 AM EST

                                          You should lay off the hollywood product for awhile.

                                            #17.2 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 12:20 PM EST

                                            For all we know, al-Qaeda is bankrolling the whole protest!

                                            • 1 vote
                                            Reply#18 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:19 AM EST

                                            Why cant we let the middle east get what they deserve finally real democratic reforms .

                                            The west should stau out of their lives and stop saying wthat is in our intrest intrest.

                                            The west intrest have screwed up 50 years of true reform that would have happened 20 years ago if we stayed out of it

                                              Reply#19 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:20 AM EST

                                              Al-Qaida or Taliban has very little relevance to much of the Muslim world. Even Pakistan which they have infested deeply is immune to them in the sense that if elections are held there AlQaida or Taliban will get next to nothing votes. It is the western world that is pre-occupied and overwhelmed with these extremist groups. AlQaida and extremist groups like it only fill in where there is a political vacuum as it existed in Afghanistan. After being heavily involved in Afghanistan, US, and its cohorts vanished from the scene as soon as the Soviets were defeated. That created a political vacuum which was filled with AlQaida.

                                              Do not try to juxtapose these extremist organizations on the Egyptian situation. Egypts' protests are against a dictatorship that has ruled them for the last 58 years, against high unemployment, extreme poverty, police brutality, corruption, and injustice.

                                              A nation that is built on the concepts of freedom, liberty, equality, justice, and above all, pursuit of happiness, should unequivocally support such ideals throughout the world, irrespective of the region, race, or religion of the protestors.

                                              • 1 vote
                                              Reply#20 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:28 AM EST

                                              What do you know, nothing, about Al Quada.

                                              After the 1980s Pro Western Afghans defeated the USSR 40th Army Occupation. The US Cut and Ran despite the pleading of Senator Charles Wilson, Democrat Texas, for $300 Million to help the 1980s Pro Western Afghan Muhajeen rebuild all the destruction (USSR Total War) of Afghanistan.

                                              After the defeat of the USSR 40th Army Occupation of Afghanistan, millions of pro USSR Afghan Refugees returned from Fundamentalist Islamic Iran. They fled to Fundamentalist Islamic Iran (USSR Backed) because the USSR 40th Army did not care which Afghans they killed (massacred) while conducting Total Conventional War (including Chemical Warfare, Carpet Bombing, etc.). These pro USSR Afghans even fought on the side of Fundamentalist Islamic Iran (USSR Backed) during the Iran Iraq Wars. Upon returning to Afghanistan after years, they became the 1990s Fundamentalist Islamic Taliban and massacred the 1980s Pro Western Afghan Muhajeen as Collaborators to the Christians, Jews, Unbelievers in accordance with the Holy Koran (Quran) Sura 33.

                                              Al Quada was formed later at Saudi Arabia. And after the First World Trade Center Bombing, Osama Bin Laden released by President Clinton by refusing offered Saudi Arabian extradition, Al Quada and Osama Bin Laden flee to Afghanistan seeking Refuge under Islam from the Fundamentalist Islamic Taliban Government. After President Clinton's refusal of the offered Saudi Arabian extradition, US Special Warfare shadows Osama Bin Laden to Afghanistan, denied numerous requests to terminate by White House (US President), Pentagon, US Congress, as US No Assassination Policy. Osama Bin Laden and Al Quada plan and coordinate the 9/11 2001 attacks using the resources of the Fundamentalist Islamic Taliban Government (Communications, Money Launderying, Security, Shelter, Food, Water, etc. as not capable of conducting the 9/11 2001 Attacks without the Fundamentalist Islamic Taliban Governments support) as the First World Trade Center Bombing was considered a failure by Osama Bin Laden and Al Quada (did not gain enough Worldwide Recognition).

                                              Part of my US Military Officer involvement with the Middle East since the 1980s.

                                              FYI, it is the vocal minority, 3%, of the Egyptian Population that is protesting at Cairo. While it is the majority at Alexandria (Egypt) that are protesting, as the seat of the Muslim Brotherhood. Yes, I lived in Egypt before for a few years.

                                              • 5 votes
                                              #20.1 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 8:16 AM EST

                                              you saw that movie too?

                                              • 2 votes
                                              #20.2 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 9:12 AM EST

                                              Good sheesh in Alexandria but it got me busted, almost.

                                                #20.3 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 3:36 PM EST

                                                These serendipidous events in Tunisia and now Egypt should be a moment of pause for potentially up and coming radical Islamists who were brainwashed into believing violence is the only way. The pen is mightier than the sword may very well be a comeback kid. FB and Twitter etc played a significant roll in these uprisings. To date, suicide bombing has not played a roll. Kudos to the peaceful protesters. A word of caution though, stay focused on your new successor or your hard work and sacrifice would have been in vain.

                                                • 3 votes
                                                Reply#21 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:31 AM EST

                                                Prove it to me and then I will believe...

                                                  Reply#22 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:36 AM EST

                                                  The reason there is no Al Queda Bin Laden comment is because the Egyptian Revolution caught everybody by surprise. The events were so fast moving, the Al Queda illusionist have been caught up in the Islamic Brotherhood narrative. Now, since you have brought it to their attention; I suspect a swift boat style video will soon appear to support the war on terrorism narrative that enriches the chosen few who perpetuate the Bin Laden illusion.

                                                  • 2 votes
                                                  Reply#23 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:43 AM EST

                                                  Speaking of videos. They never taped Goldstein's--ah, bin Laden's--reaction to the Egypt story because, as you mention, the scenario wasn't envisioned in 2003 when he recorded all his "al-qaeda" responses to possible world events before his death.

                                                  I'm surprised they haven't used a stand-in bin Laden, as they have in several videos.

                                                  • 3 votes
                                                  #23.1 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 8:05 AM EST

                                                  But where is O'Brien?

                                                    #23.2 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 3:38 PM EST

                                                    wow. No such thing as Al-Qaeda ? hmmmm.... then that MUST mean there is no JIHAD.

                                                    • 1 vote
                                                    Reply#24 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:46 AM EST

                                                    Most in the US do not realize that Al Quada is an International Franchise as supported by the 1.5 Billion Islamic Believers Worldwide as part of the Worldwide Islamic Military (aka Islamic Jihadists, Terrorists) thru Mandatory Islamic Tithes is still effective.

                                                    Granted we (US Military Asymmetric Warfare Forces and NATO Asymmetric Warfare Forces) have been decreasing the Al Quada here at Afghanistan using Asymmetric Mountain Warfare (we are less than 3% of the total Military Forces here, the rest are Conventional Warfare). However, the International Al Quada Franchise (other Nations) still remains. Here in Afghanistan, the Fundamentalist Islamic Taliban, and Army of Islam (plus or minus, 150,000 members (including "Reserves"), at Pakistan) support Al Quada thru Logistics, Security, Funding, Communications, etc.. Al Quada after the 9/11 2001 Attacks is considered as the "Super Stars" of the Worldwide Islamic Military over the Fundamentalist Islamic Taliban, Pakistanis Fundamentalist Islamic Taliban, Pakistanis Army of Islam, etc..

                                                    • 3 votes
                                                    #24.1 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 8:39 AM EST

                                                    There is not. What you see is the smoke and mirrors while the fabrication of the NWO is put in place.

                                                    • 2 votes
                                                    #24.2 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 8:41 AM EST

                                                    Another kool-aid drinker" The following headline can be found on the Drudge Report, 02/09/2011:

                                                    Muslim Brotherhood text reveals scope of radical creed

                                                    ".....The Brotherhood’s objectives of advancing the global conquest of Islam and reestablishing the Islamic Caliphate, the public and private duties of jihad and the struggle Muslims must wage against Israel.

                                                    The full text, translated by PMW, will be posted Wednesday on the organization’s website, Palwatch.org.

                                                    "...The movement differs from international terror groups like Al-Qaida, he said, only in tactics, not in its goals.

                                                    ...The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday saw excerpts of the text, compiled by Palestinian Media Watch founder Itamar Marcus and analyst Nan Jacques Zilberdik.

                                                    .....Marcus cited passages in the text that urge Muslims to wage jihad only when circumstances are ripe."

                                                    • 5 votes
                                                    Reply#25 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 7:58 AM EST

                                                    If most people read the SOS Clinton, US Department of State (unclassified version) Document, they would sh!t all over themselves (as finally realizing the Worldwide Islamic Military Threat, like the Hamas Foreign Fighters at South and Cental Americas, Mexico, and other places "too close to home" (as I posted (other Newsvine Topics) the over 23 Million Illegal Aliens in the US forced to cooperate with the Islamic Terrorists by the Mexican Drug Lords)):

                                                    (Unclassified Title). Terrorist Safe Havens and Tactics and Tools for Disrupting or Eliminating Safe Havens

                                                    This is part of the 2007 President Bush Initatives (anti Terrorism) that no one knew about. We had a need to know, as we (US Military Special Warfare) independently verify the Intelligence of the US Executive Branch Intelligence Agency. Now declassified US Department of State Document:

                                                    http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/crt/2007/104103.htm

                                                    • 3 votes
                                                    #25.1 - Wed Feb 9, 2011 8:57 AM EST
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